- Increased ambition beyond the EU targets – Commission Recommendations towards Member States should make it clear that NECPs must aim to fully meet the ambition of the new EU’s legislation in its entirety (relating to climate, energy and RRP). To comply with Paris obligations, the EU must next year submit a new NDC that “reflect its highest possible ambition” – Therefore the current EU targets reflect the minimum ambition level.
- Additional measures – Member States need to include additional policies and measures (PAMs) that allow them to reach targets and obligations. According to the Governance Regulation the NECPs shall include not only the WEM scenario but also the WAM scenarios”. However, in its assessment of draft NECPs (many with missing or insufficient WAM-chapters) the Commission did not always point to this legal requirement. WAM scenarios are often missing, not credible or not aligned with additional PAMs in some of the new draft NECPs. It is particularly important that the additional measures that require new funding are identified. The Commission should ensure that the final NECP updates contain sufficient WAM-scenarios and also that investment gaps are revealed.
- Coal phase-out plans are delayed or missing – It is very problematic that some Member States are backtracking on previous commitments and delaying coal phaseout as well as failing to include a timeline for ending national fossil fuel subsidies.
- Ensuring a just transition – To accompany the needed acceleration in climate measures, Member States need to systematically assess potential social risks and mitigate them early on. Most Member States did not respect the Governance Regulation’s mandate to assess the level of energy poverty and potentially to include an associated reduction target. Member States also scarcely mentioned transport poverty. Therefore the NECPs do not lay a solid ground for the upcoming Social Climate Plans and for addressing the social outcomes of the upcoming ETS-2. This poses clear social risks that should be made very clear to Member States.
- EU funds and additional emissions’ reduction – The final NECP updates must account for the additional measures and the related emissions’ reductions made possible by the use of EU funds, notably the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) and REPowerEU. This is not optional: Member States are legally required to spend 37% of their RRF funding on the green transition, and the NECPs cannot truly be considered as “integrated” plans if such crucial pieces of the puzzle are not properly accounted for. The Commission needs to ensure that final NECPs include a quantification of emissions’ reductions generated by RRF and REPowerEU funding, and that Member States increase their national targets accordingly.
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