Written by James Trinder, additional content by Frosina Antonovska & Özlem Katisöz
At the World Economic Forum, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reminded us that “The Paris Agreement continues to be the best hope of all humanity.” She announced that Europe would “stay the course” and work with all nations determined to protect nature and stop global warming. Yet here we stand, on deadline day for the submission of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) ahead of COP30, with no news from the European Commission. To live up to the words spoken in Davos, the EU has some key milestones it needs to meet in 2025.
This moment aligns closely with the EU’s broader strategic ambitions outlined in the Leader’s Agenda 2025, which places renewed emphasis on ‘EU in the World’ and the next phase of enlargement. Climate diplomacy is central to these efforts, as the EU seeks to strengthen its ties with accession countries and close partners across the continent. Continued stability, energy security, and the socio-economic benefits of the climate transition of the continent depends on how effectively neighbouring transitions in Europe can integrate and support one another, including in the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, the Western Balkans, and Turkey. This transboundary perspective will be crucial to maintain as the European nations present their NDCs ahead of COP30.
Anticipation around the EU’s 2040 target setting
The EU’s target-setting process has always been a cornerstone of its climate leadership, firstly across the continent, then influencing decisions globally. Through legally binding commitments, the Union has charted a course toward climate neutrality by 2050. Intermediate milestones, however, are equally critical. The world is watching to see how the EU’s 2040 target will shape its updated NDC under the Paris Agreement.
In February 2024, the European Commission recommended a 90 per cent emissions reduction by 2040, relative to 1990 levels; a key step forward but also the bare minimum, considering that the advice from the European Scientific Advisory Board and the same Commission’s Impact Assessment recommend a higher target (at least 90-95 per cent) as the most beneficial and aligned with equity. CAN Europe advocates for a climate neutrality target by 2040 at the latest, drawing also on an immense potential for socio-economic benefits of such higher ambition. Importantly, the mission letters for the new European Commissioners included the mandate to put a proposal on the table which would enshrine the 90 per cent net emissions reduction target for 2040 into the European Climate Law. This was also confirmed by Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra during his confirmation hearing in September 2024. The “Competitive Compass” released by the European Commission on 29 January 2025 also includes a clear reference to the 90 per cent target.
The EU agreeing on its 2040 climate target, as required by the European Climate Law, would provide businesses, investors, and policymakers the clarity and direction needed to accelerate the green transition. Yet this ambition hinges on sustained political momentum and new legislative action.
Sequencing EU legislative action ahead of the NDC announcement
A year has passed since the Commission’s communication on the 2040 climate target, and the lack of progress since then risks undermining the EU’s leadership position ahead of COP30. While a number of exchanges on ministerial and expert level were held on enabling conditions on the 2040 target,a formal legislative proposal of the European Climate Law amendments or the NDC has not yet been put on the table. When proposing the 2040 target last year, the European Commission also did not suggest a specific 2035 target. The approach to first adopt a 2040 target binding under European law, and then calculate a 2035 target on that basis is consistent with the EU’s overall approach over the last 10 years. The risk now however, is that delaying a 2040 target agreement could lead to the pursuit of a 2035 target that is simply a straight line between the 2030 target (55 per cent net reductions compared to 1990 levels) and the 2050 climate neutrality goal. This would approximately result in a reduction target of only net 66.25 per cent for 2035. This would be a shockingly unambitious target which would be wholly inadequate in light of the EU’s capacities and responsibilities, as the current ambition level is assessed to be only compatible with a 3°C pathway.
As the EU is in the preparation of critical economic legislative actions – including the Clean Industrial Deal proposal expected for 26 February – it is also timely to now move forward officially on the 2040 climate targets and the EU NDC given the obvious clear connections.
What the EU’s NDC Should Include
As the EU prepares its post 2030 NDC for COP30, it must build on its existing legislative framework to demonstrate both ambition and credibility, while also translating recent UNFCCC agreements into its plan. Even though specific legislation to underpin these targets would have to be worked out in the next few years (and reflected in a later NDC), it is time to move forward. Key elements of the NDC should include:
- Bold emission reduction targets across all sectors: The EU targets should be aligned with 1.5°C science and equity principles. CAN Europe calls for the EU to reach climate neutrality by 2040 at the latest, based on 92% gross emission reductions, and 82 per cent gross (94 per cent net) emission reductions by 2035 for the main NDC target. The 2030 target should be updated for at least 65 per cent gross emission reductions, instead of the current “at least 55 per cent” net reductions.
- Separate targets: Further, the future targets should reflect three separate and distinct targets and policies for a) gross emissions reduction, b) net carbon dioxide sequestration in the land use (LULUCF) sector and c) permanent industrial carbon dioxide removals based on a thorough assessment of their sustainable scale-up, taking into account risks, benefits and trade-offs.
- Phasing out fossil fuels: Clear deadlines to phase out fossil fuel use and exploration would be a powerful signal of the translating of the COP28 agreements into the NDC: CAN Europe’s own modelling suggests the following dates in consistence with the above climate targets: coal by 2030, gas by 2035, and oil by 2040. This should be accompanied by a commitment to a 100 per cent renewable energy system by 2040 – with finance dedicated to scaling renewable capacity, modernising grids, and protecting workers and communities.
- Energy efficiency and demand reduction: Binding targets for energy savings are another critical element that an ideal NDC would contain: at least 50 per cent for primary energy consumption and 40 per cent for final energy consumption by 2040.
- Adaptation and resilience: the EU must align its NDC with the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) thus strengthening preparedness for climate impacts across Europe, and enhancing strategies to protect citizens, ecosystems and the economy, in particular supporting low-resilience communities with social protection.
- Biodiversity and ecosystem protection: The EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030 and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework should be explicitly reflected in the NDC, with legal and financial safeguards against ecosystem destruction.
- Equity and just transition: Measures to ensure fairness, inclusivity, and support for vulnerable communities, both within Europe and the rest of the world. This starts with close regional cooperation. All new EU diplomatic partnerships (including trade or energy agreements) with global south countries, must be just, equitable, consistent with human rights principles, and supported by substantial public finance (ideally with direct access to finance for climate-vulnerable communities).
- Fundamental role of civil society: Protecting space for civil society to operate and participate in climate governance, is fundamental to the success of transnational climate governance. Without civil society, accountability and transparency cannot be ensured.
- Countering climate disinformation: Disinformation undermines public trust, distorts policy debates, and weakens accountability mechanisms. The EU’s NDC should explicitly recognise this as a threat and commit to factual climate communication, safeguarding independent media, and access to science-based information.
Europe beyond the EU
It is crucial to recognise the impact that an ambitious EU NDC can have on its neighbouring countries, such as the Western Balkans Six and Turkey.
The road to COP30 will require countries in the Western Balkan region to consolidate their plans by providing a vision that would tackle two main challenges: an ambition high enough to be credible to reach net zero, and a compatible coal phase out timeline. The Western Balkan Six need to show measurable progress in emissions reductions and adaptation strategies, in line with the EU’s climate goals. Credible, coherent updates of NDCs will not only contribute to global climate solutions but also solidify its path toward EU integration.
Turkey’s NDC aims to cut projected emissions from 1,175 MtCO₂e to 700MtCO₂e by 2030 through various mitigation measures. Shockingly, this actually represents a 33 per cent increase from current levels (550 MtCO₂e). With preparation for the 2035 NDC now underway, Turkey has a critical opportunity to realign and stay on course for its 2053 net-zero target. Turkey can achieve an absolute reduction in emissions by 2030 without major economic restructuring, whilst benefiting from energy independence, lower energy costs, and higher value chain businesses. By revising its 2030 target and setting an ambitious 2035 goal, Turkey can contribute meaningfully to limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and pursue a more cost-effective, strategic transition which will also serve to enhance Turkey’s climate leadership credentials in the wider EMEA region.
Benefits to citizens of aligning with the Paris Agreement
Aligning with the Paris Agreement goes beyond protecting the planet—it directly improves the lives of citizens. Cleaner air means healthier communities, energy-efficient homes means lower energy bills and renewable energy investments create jobs and reduce dependency on imported fossil fuels. As a recent study by CAN Europe has shown, socio-economic co-benefits make the case for an ambitious EU NDC even stronger. This will be critical to clearly show during the negotiations for the EU’s 2028-2034 budget, especially in light of the new climate finance goals, as agreed at COP29. With the Paris architecture under threat from autocratic climate-skeptics, there is no better moment for the EU to seize the leadership void.
The 2035 and 2040 targets are not just a number, they are a signal of the EU’s resolve to lead the global fight against climate change, inequity, and fossil capture. With temperatures in Europe already 2.1°C above pre-industrial levels, and climate events combined with biodiversity loss threatening the future of global food security, the stakes are higher than ever. Decisive action on the EU NDC and a legally binding 2040 target will set a leading example for its close neighbourhood, and can spur other countries to act now – paving the way to a future of prosperity and climate security for all – not just the super rich.
