Ember are modelling the entire European electricity system – including links to other important sectors like transport and heating – to determine how electricity can be decarbonised within a carbon budget consistent with the Paris agreement. The modelling is being performed in collaboration with optimisation experts Artelys, who also provide modelling services to the European Commission. The project aims to provide benchmarks for renewable generation and power system flexibility at the country level, in support of fossil-to-clean electricity campaigning from the national to the European level. In the wake of President Biden’s ambitious target for the US of zero-carbon power by 2035, we sense an opportunity to accelerate Europe’s ambition in this area. For a taster of how our results might look, see this study on power sector decarbonisation in the US.
The project will answer key questions for Europe’s power sector transition such as: for how long, and in which countries, does fossil-fired power generation have a role? How much wind and solar is required country-by-country for a Paris-compatible transition? A sector-coupled approach will answer these questions in the context of increasing electrification in the rest of the economy.
Results will be presented as a range of scenarios, exploring the effects of key uncertainties and different degrees of success on key supporting policy priorities, e.g., land availability for renewable energy or energy efficiency improvements. The project will build on the work done by CAN members to construct the PAC scenario, and derive national implications of that work. In the context of the study, the PAC scenario will represent an advanced pathway where all enablers align to deliver the fastest possible decarbonisation.
We would love to hear from you, especially if you have access to high quality data on your country’s electricity system, or if there are nationally significant electricity sector debates that our results could help to inform.
Aditional information: 2035 Report | Renewable Energy Costs & Our Clean Electricity Future – 2035 The Report
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 The time period subject to modelling will be 2020 to 2050 in 5-year time steps. The countries in scope include the EU27 + UK + Switzerland + Norway + the Western Balkans.