The European Union is once again experiencing the consequences of its structural dependence on expensive fossil fuels, an exposure that has proven to be not just the main cause of costly climate disruption, but also an economic liability and a strategic vulnerability. Recent crises have underscored how reliance on imported oil and gas leaves the EU highly susceptible to external shocks, price volatility, and geopolitical coercion. Energy is not merely a commodity; it is a lever of power.
Beyond immediate energy security concerns, fossil fuel dependence also carries deeper implications for democracy. Revenues from fossil fuel exports often sustain regimes with weak democratic accountability, indirectly linking European consumption to the reinforcement of authoritarian governance abroad. These revenues can also indirectly finance wars and aggression, such as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine or the US and Israeli attacks against Iran. At the same time, sudden price spikes and supply disruptions within Europe fuel inflation with dramatic social consequences and provide a fertile ground for populism and disinformation. Fossil fuel dependence is becoming a systemic risk. Reducing this dependency must therefore be elevated as a core pillar of the EU’s Energy Security Framework.
Supplier countries can, and do, weaponize fossil fuel exports to exert political influence, constrain foreign policy choices, and exploit divisions among Member States. Russia has long weaponised its energy against the EU, including before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The US is also using its energy as a weapon and even threatened the EU with losing ‘favourable’ access to LNG if it did not
pass the trade deal.
Achieving greater energy autonomy can not be the equivalent of diversifying fossil fuel suppliers. It requires fundamentally reducing demand for fossil fuels through renewables based
electrification, energy savings through efficiency and sufficiency, and the rapid deployment of domestic renewable energy and non-fossil flexibility. In doing so, the EU can strengthen its
strategic autonomy, shield its economies from external shocks, and protect the democratic foundations that underpin its political project. By reducing the demand for fossil fuels, space is created to be more selective – through non-price criteria – regarding which countries fossil fuels are still imported from and what level of dependency is deemed justifiable.
Given the inherent vulnerability due to the EU’s fossil fuel and fossil gas dependency in particular, the European Commission has the unique opportunity with the Energy Security revision to propose concrete measures to reduce dependency as a key lever for EU security and strategic
autonomy. These should be articulated around the following four principles.
- PRINCIPLE NUMBER 1: EMBED DEMAND REDUCTION IN AN ECONOMY-WIDE FOSSIL GAS PHASE OUT FRAMEWORK
- PRINCIPLE NUMBER 2: INTRODUCING BINDING EU AND NATIONAL TARGETS FOR NON-FOSSIL FLEXIBILITY
- PRINCIPLE NUMBER 3: REFORMING THE N-1 PRINCIPLE
- PRINCIPLE NUMBER 4: DEFINE ENERGY SECURITY MEASURES FOR PROTECTED CONSUMERS
Energy Security Revision: Advocacy Input